Poker

Like so many others, I found poker during the great poker boom of the early 2000s. Poker shows (such as the World Poker Tour) started to become popular, and I was quickly hooked by the combination of skills that it takes to be a successful player.

And it is, indeed, a game of skill. While randomness certainly plays a part - often infuriatingly so - it's only important in the short term. The more you play, the more apparent this becomes; if you put your money in as a 60-40 favourite, you may lose 10 times in a row. But if you make that play 100,000 times, you're almost certainly going to show a profit.

But while maths is important, it isn't the aspect that I find most fascinating. Sure, you certainly need to acquire some understanding of the maths involved (such as how odds work or what an M-ratio means in a tournament) but that's all just mechanical. To me, the real beauty of the game comes from the fact that it's largely about telling stories.

First of all, as the game progresses, you are telling a story about what kind of player you are. If you only play a small portion of the hands you're dealt, your opponents (the ones who are paying attention, that is) will start seeing you as a "tight" player. When you have this image - and you should always be aware of your image at the table, mind you - other players will start respecting your bets and raises more, which in turn may allow you to get away with bluffs more often. Conversely, if you are seen as an aggressive player who plays a lot of junk hands and bets and raises all the time, you may win a huge pot when you finally have a great hand, and nobody believes you when you raise.

How you tend to play your hands also gives out information, and you don't want to always be telling the same story in the same situation. Becoming predictable will allow your opponents to take advantage of your betting patterns. If you tend to raise early, but give up quickly if your hand doesn't improve on later betting rounds, you will find yourself constantly getting bluffed out of the pot. Do you bluff too much yourself? Then your opponents will try and trap you with their good hands, appearing weak when they are strong. Not bluffing often enough? Then nobody will pay you off when you finally have the goods.

Great poker players are able to pick up all kinds of little pieces of information before deciding how to proceed. Legendary professionals, such as Daniel Negreanu and the late Stu Ungar, are famous for their uncanny ability to call out the exact two cards their opponent holds.

There was a time when I dreamt of becoming a poker pro myself. When I wasn't playing, I was studying the game by reading poker literature (even after selling most of them, I still have quite a bunch of poker books). I gave up on my dream though; as a profession, it's just too stressful for most people, including me. I still play occasionally, but only as a recreational player in small tournaments.

I still find the game fascinating, not only in itself but how many of its features apply to real life as well. There are people who fit similar profiles to what you can see on the poker table; politicians who thrive on sheer arrogance and unpredictability, businessmen who succeed by their ability to form complete pictures out of incomplete information, and manipulative narcissists who know exactly how to "play" other people to take advantage of them. Understanding how these kind of people operate can help one defend themselves against their strategies.

My favourite parallel, however, comes from tournament poker:

In a "freezeout" type of tournament, your stack of chips represents how much life you have left in you. Once you run out, it's all over. In the beginning you have a lot of chips and the cost of waiting for good cards is low, so you can afford to be patient. All kinds of plays are available to you, and little mistakes won't matter that much.

But as the game progresses and the stakes get higher, your options become more limited. As your stack dwindles, the relative value of our remaining chips starts to raise. The waiting game no longer works - you must look out for opportunities more keenly, and move in more boldly as they arise. 

Because if you don't, then you will just dwindle away, having accomplished nothing. There comes a time when you just need to go for it.

"All in."